Posts Tagged ‘Politica’

O que se pode aprender com a crise japonesa?

22 de Fevereiro de 2012

Trabalho desenvolvido pelo FMI sobre as considerações da crise no Japão e que ilações poderemos retirar

Is the recovery from the global financial crisis now secured? A strikingly similar crisis that stalled Japan’s growth miracle two decades ago could provide some clues. This paper explores the parallels and draws potential implications for the current global outlook and policies. Japan’s experiences suggest four broad lessons. First, green shoots do not guarantee a recovery, implying a need to be cautious about the outlook. Second, financial fragilities can leave an economy vulnerable to adverse shocks and should be resolved for a durable recovery. Third, well-calibrated macroeconomic stimulus can facilitate this adjustment, but carries increasing costs. And fourth, while judging the best time to exit from policy support is difficult, clear medium-term plans may help

Link: Ver artigo completo

O que podemos aprender com a crise Sueca?

22 de Fevereiro de 2012

Trabalho interessante sobre o balanço da crise Sueca de inicio da decada de 90:

The article analyses the Swedish banking crisis in the early 1990s. Newly deregulated credit markets after 1985 stimulated a competitive process between financial institutions where expansion was given priority.

Combined with an expansive macro policy, this contributed to an asset price boom. The subsequent crisis resulted from a highly leveraged private sector being simultaneously hit by three major exogenous events: a shift in monetary policy with an increase in pre-tax interest rates, a tax reform that increased after tax interest rates, and the ERM crisis. Combined with some overinvestment in commercial property, high real interest rates contributed to breaking the boom in real estate prices and triggering a downward price spiral resulting in bankruptcies and massive credit losses. The government rescued the banking system by issuing a general guarantee of bank obligations. The total direct cost to the taxpayer of the salvage has been estimated at around 2 per cent of GDP.

Link: The Swedish Banking Crisis  (ver artigo completo)


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