Archive for the ‘Sociedade’ Category

Business Process Management

17 de Abril de 2013

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Chinese Outbound Investment in European Union

6 de Fevereiro de 2013

Estudo que analisa o investimento estrangeiro da China nos países da União Europeia. 

The soaring trend of outbound investment by Chinese enterprises is generating much intrigue and excitement across international economic and political spheres. Even though China has been the largest contributor to global GDP growth since 2006, outbound direct investment (ODI) from China is still relatively small. However since the mid-2000s it has increased dramatically year-on-year to reach USD 366 billion in investment stock by the end of 2011 and is an identified priority of the Chinese Government in the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015). The EU and its member states are positive about the benefits that foreign direct investment (FDI) brings to their economies in terms of increased productivity and efficiency stimulated by greater competition. In addition, it is also apparent that the EU has gained from Chinese investment in European government debt whilst managing recent difficulties. So as Europe looks to attract more FDI, and China looks to increase its ODI, it is timely to consult with those Chinese enterprises that have invested in Europe in order to find out what obstacles they face and how these can be overcome.

 
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Bill Gates: My Plan to Fix The World’s Biggest Problems

1 de Fevereiro de 2013

We can learn a lot about improving the 21st-century world from an icon of the industrial era: the steam engine.

Harnessing steam power required many innovations, as William Rosen chronicles in the book “The Most Powerful Idea in the World.” Among the most important were a new way to measure the energy output of engines and a micrometer dubbed the “Lord Chancellor” that could gauge tiny distances. 

Bill Gates at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week.

Such measuring tools, Mr. Rosen writes, allowed inventors to see if their incremental design changes led to the improvements—such as higher power and less coal consumption—needed to build better engines. There’s a larger lesson here: Without feedback from precise measurement, Mr. Rosen writes, invention is “doomed to be rare and erratic.” With it, invention becomes “commonplace.”

In the past year, I have been struck by how important measurement is to improving the human condition. You can achieve incredible progress if you set a clear goal and find a measure that will drive progress toward that goal—in a feedback loop similar to the one Mr. Rosen describes.

This may seem basic, but it is amazing how often it is not done and how hard it is to get right. Historically, foreign aid has been measured in terms of the total amount of money invested—and during the Cold War, by whether a country stayed on our side—but not by how well it performed in actually helping people. Closer to home, despite innovation in measuring teacher performance world-wide, more than 90% of educators in the U.S. still get zero feedback on how to improve.

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An innovation—whether it’s a new vaccine or an improved seed—can’t have an impact unless it reaches the people who will benefit from it. We need innovations in measurement to find new, effective ways to deliver those tools and services to the clinics, family farms and classrooms that need them.

I’ve found many examples of how measurement is making a difference over the past year—from a school in Colorado to a health post in rural Ethiopia. Our foundation is supporting these efforts. But we and others need to do more. As budgets tighten for governments and foundations world-wide, we all need to take the lesson of the steam engine to heart and adapt it to solving the world’s biggest problems.

One of the greatest successes in terms of using measurement to drive global change has been an agreement signed in 2000 by the United Nations. The Millennium Development Goals, supported by 189 nations, set 2015 as a deadline for making specific percentage improvements across a set of crucial areas—such as health, education and basic income. Many people assumed the pact would be filed away and forgotten like so many U.N. and government pronouncements. The decades before had brought many well-meaning declarations to combat problems from nutrition to human rights, but most lacked a road map for measuring progress. However, the Millennium goals were backed by a broad consensus, were clear and concrete, and brought focus to the highest priorities.

When Ethiopia signed on to the Millennium goals in 2000, the country put hard numbers to its ambition to bring primary health care to all of its citizens. The concrete goal of reducing child mortality by two-thirds created a clear target by which to measure success or failure. Ethiopia’s commitment attracted a surge of donor money toward improving the country’s primary health-care services.

With help from the Indian state of Kerala, which had built a successful network of community health-care posts, Ethiopia launched its own program in 2004 and today has more than 15,000 health posts staffed by 34,000 workers. (This is one of the greatest benefits of measurement—the ability it gives government leaders to make comparisons across countries and then learn from the best.)

Last March, I visited the Germana Gale Health Post in the Dalocha region of Ethiopia, where I saw charts of immunizations, malaria cases and other data plastered to its walls. This information goes into a system—part paper-based and part computerized—that helps government officials see where things are working and to take action in places where they aren’t. In recent years, data from the field have helped the government respond more quickly to outbreaks of malaria and measles. Perhaps even more important, the government previously didn’t have any official record of a child’s birth or death in rural Ethiopia. It now tracks those metrics closely.

The health workers provide most services at the posts, though they also visit the homes of pregnant women and sick people. They ensure that each home has access to a bed net to protect the family from malaria, a pit toilet, first-aid training and other basic health and safety practices. All these interventions are quite simple, yet they’ve dramatically improved the lives of people in this country.

Consider the story of one young mother in Dalocha. Sebsebila Nassir was born in 1990, when about 20% of all children in Ethiopia did not survive to see their fifth birthdays. Two of Sebsebila’s six siblings died as infants. But when a health post opened its doors in Dalocha, life started to change. Last year when Sebsebila became pregnant, she received regular checkups. On Nov. 28, Sebsebila traveled to a health center where a midwife was at her bedside during her seven-hour labor. Shortly after her daughter was born, a health worker gave the baby vaccines against polio and tuberculosis.

According to Ethiopian custom, parents wait to name a baby because children often die in the first weeks of life. When Sebsebila’s first daughter was born three years ago, she followed tradition and waited a month to bestow a name. This time, with more confidence in her new baby’s chances of survival, Sebsebila put “Amira”—”princess” in Arabic—in the blank at the top of her daughter’s immunization card on the day she was born. Sebsebila isn’t alone: Many parents in Ethiopia now have the confidence to do the same.

Ethiopia has lowered child mortality more than 60% since 1990, putting the country on track to achieve the Millennium goal of lowering child mortality two-thirds by 2015, compared with 1990. Though the world won’t quite meet the goal, we’ve still made great progress: The number of children under 5 years old who die world-wide fell to 6.9 million in 2011, down from 12 million in 1990 (despite a growing global population).

Another story of success driven by better measurement is polio. Starting in 1988, global health organizations (along with many countries) established a goal of eradicating polio, which focused political will and opened purse strings to pay for large-scale immunization campaigns. By 2000, the virus had nearly been wiped out; there are now fewer than 1,000 cases world-wide.

But getting rid of the very last cases is the hardest part. In order to stop the spread of infections, health workers have to vaccinate nearly all children under the age of 5 multiple times a year in polio-affected countries. There are now just three countries that have not eliminated polio: Nigeria, Pakistan and Afghanistan. I visited northern Nigeria four years ago to try to understand why eradication is so difficult there. I saw that routine public health services were failing: Fewer than half the kids were getting vaccines regularly. One huge problem was that many small settlements in the region were missing from vaccinators’ hand-drawn maps and lists documenting the locations of villages and numbers of children.

To fix this, the polio workers walked through all high-risk areas in the northern part of the country, which enabled them to add 3,000 previously overlooked communities to the immunization campaigns. The program is also using high-resolution satellite images to create even more detailed maps. As a result, managers can now allocate vaccinators efficiently.

What’s more, the program is piloting the use of phones equipped with a GPS application for the vaccinators. Tracks are downloaded from the phone at the end of the day so managers can see the route the vaccinators followed and compare it to the route they were assigned. This helps ensure that areas that were missed can be revisited.

I believe these kinds of measurement systems will help us to finish the job of polio eradication within the next six years. And those systems can be used to help expand routine vaccination and other health activities, which means the legacy of polio eradication will live beyond the disease itself.

Another place where measurement is starting to lead to vast improvements is in education.

In October, Melinda and I sat among two dozen 12th-graders at Eagle Valley High School near Vail, Colo. Mary Ann Stavney, a language-arts teacher, was leading a lesson on how to write narrative nonfiction pieces. She engaged her students, walking among them and eliciting great participation. We could see why Mary Ann is a master teacher, a distinction given to the school’s best teachers and an important component of a teacher-evaluation system in Eagle County.

Ms. Stavney’s work as a master teacher is informed by a three-year project our foundation funded to better understand how to build an evaluation and feedback system for educators. Drawing input from 3,000 classroom teachers, the project highlighted several measures that schools should use to assess teacher performance, including test data, student surveys and assessments by trained evaluators. Over the course of a school year, each of Eagle County’s 470 teachers is evaluated three times and is observed in class at least nine times by master teachers, their principal and peers called mentor teachers.

The Eagle County evaluations are used to give a teacher not only a score but also specific feedback on areas to improve and ways to build on their strengths. In addition to one-on-one coaching, mentors and masters lead weekly group meetings in which teachers collaborate to spread their skills. Teachers are eligible for annual salary increases and bonuses based on the classroom observations and student achievement.

The program faces challenges from tightening budgets, but Eagle County so far has been able to keep its evaluation and support system intact—likely one reason why student test scores have improved in Eagle County over the past five years.

I think the most critical change we can make in U.S. K–12 education, with America lagging countries in Asia and Northern Europe when it comes to turning out top students, is to create teacher-feedback systems that are properly funded, high quality and trusted by teachers.

And there are plenty of other areas where our ability to measure can improve people’s lives in powerful ways—areas where we are falling short, unnecessarily.

In poor countries, we still need better ways to measure the effectiveness of the many government workers providing health services. They are the crucial link bringing tools such as vaccines and education to the people who need them most. How well trained are they? Are they showing up to work? How can measurement enable them to perform their jobs better?

In the U.S., we should be measuring the value being added by colleges. Currently, college rankings are focused on inputs—the scores and quality of students entering college—and on judgments and prejudices about a school’s “reputation.” Students would be better served by measures of which colleges were best preparing their graduates for the job market. They then could know where they would get the most for their tuition money.

In agriculture, creating a global productivity target would help countries focus on a key but neglected area: the efficiency and output of hundreds of millions of small farmers who live in poverty. It would go a long way toward reducing poverty if we had public scorecards showing how developing-country governments, donors and others are helping those farmers.

And if I could wave a wand, I’d love to have a way to measure how exposure to risks like disease, infection, malnutrition and problem pregnancies impact children’s potential—their ability to learn and contribute to society. Measuring that could help us quantify the broader impact of those risks and help us tackle them.

The lives of the poorest have improved more rapidly in the past 15 years than ever before. And I am optimistic that we will do even better in the next 15 years. The process I have described—setting clear goals, choosing an approach, measuring results, and then using those measurements to continually refine our approach—helps us to deliver tools and services to everybody who will benefit, be they students in the U.S. or mothers in Africa. Following the path of the steam engine long ago, thanks to measurement, progress isn’t “doomed to be rare and erratic.” We can, in fact, make it commonplace.

Development as individual freedom – Amartya Sen

10 de Janeiro de 2013

The influential Nobel laureate’s work is consistently informed by the notion of development as individual freedom

Original Sen … Nobel laureate Amartya Sen believes the expansion of freedom is both the main end and primary means of development. Photograph: Murdo Macleod

In the 1990s, a set of ideas arrived that might best be called human development. This is a tradition of thought that is unashamed to call itself universalist when it comes to the basics – that we all need to live a “good life”. And it is unwilling to give up on the belief that we are all equally entitled to enjoy such things. Accordingly, this point of view takes human flourishing, and not its absence, as its entry point to the problem of poverty and global inequality.

 

In many ways, that makes human development thinking the mirror opposite of post-development ideas. Where Arturo Escobar and other post- and anti-development thinkers blamed the very ideology of development for the problems of extreme poverty, human development blames our failure to think broadly enough: to imagine and create a way of organising the world that works for everyone, and not just the few.

 

This does not mean that we have arrived at some point of optimal balance, an approach containing just the right mix of pragmatism and hope, or just the right way to mix markets and states together. As should by now be clear, there is no single panacea to the problems and pitfalls of development. All the same, human development is perhaps not too far off a workable median either, at least potentially. And the Indian economist Amartya Sen is certainly very close to embodying the human development position better than anyone else. He has had the greatest intellectual influence on its arguments, while the longevity of his career and the magnitude of his contributions across a wide spectrum of issues – covering choice theory in economics to philosophical interventions on the idea of justice itself – have taken such arguments well beyond questions of economic development.

 

Born in Bengal in 1933, Sen has spent the larger part of his working life at institutions in the UK and the US. He is an economist by training, but works with a philosopher’s scepticism about what we take to be fundamental truths. Though a Nobel prize-winner in economics, he has chosen not to “consult” with governments on the back of his ideas. As the LSE’s Stuart Corbridge notes, for Sen it is a matter of pride that, as he himself puts it: “I have never counselled any government, preferring to place my suggestions and critiques – for what they are worth – in the public domain.”

 

Perhaps the most widely known of those stem from Sen’s work on famine. He argues that famines are rarely the result of a lack of food. They are more usually the consequence of a breakdown in people’s ability to access or produce food in the way that they usually do – the result of political failures, not natural ones. But whether in his writing about famines – he was long haunted by the memory of the great Bengal famine of 1943 – or on the more arcane computations of social choice theory, Sen’s work has at heart most consistently concerned itself with the idea of human freedom.

 

His thinking is pulled together in the 1999 book Development as Freedom: a must-read on any development studies course and certainly written with a wider public in mind. Sen argues that the expansion of freedom is central to development – “both as the primary end and as the principal means”.

 

Sen would have us conceptualise development as freedom in this way because he wants the goal to be wider than, say, a numerical measure of GNP and because he wants us to be able to then pursue that idea systematically, to ensure it is brought about.

 

Of these two instances, the latter is more far-reaching, because it requires thinking about poverty not simply as an aberration, as something that we might somehow solve. It involves acknowledging, rather, that “our privileges are located on the same map as their suffering”, as Susan Sontag puts it. The problem of development lies as much in what we classify as wealth and how we go about promoting that as it does in poverty.

 

That development represents a wider set of freedoms than GNP can help us with is also important because of a paradox that Sen expresses in his Tanner lectures (pdf) of the mid-1980s: “You could be happy, without having much freedom. You could have a good deal of freedom, without achieving much.” Freedom, then, is not itself free of an individual’s capability or desire to use it to any particular end. Accordingly, development becomes not so much about making up for what people lack (modernisation, say) so much as removing the “unfreedoms” that stop them living in a way they might otherwise choose: market inequalities, perhaps, or state violence.

 

Sen’s arguments stem from a commitment to the importance of individual freedoms. Not for him the wishy-washy relativism that gripped many parts of the academy in the 1990s. But not for him either the bone hard individualism of the intellectual right. This means we need to be careful in interpreting Sen. It is not so much that he supports as much individual freedom as will enable the greater good, but that he supports real, lived-in freedoms, or what are often called “capabilities”: freedoms of opportunity and not just of theoretical rights.

 

What use are political freedoms on paper, he challenges, when in practice people are prevented from enjoying them because they also suffer “unfreedoms” of malnutrition, discrimination, or even of greater exposure to epidemiological risk and natural hazard? This claim has yet to be fully taken on board by practitioners and politicians more concerned with addressing perceived needs and the shorter-term political horizon.

 

Part of the reason may be because Sen has chosen not to champion his thought from the leather-bound chair of the presidency of the World Bank. If you think about what he is saying, of course, it soon becomes clear why he could never have done so. But for all that Sen has refrained from whispering in the ear of individual governments, he has nonetheless advised and shaped significantly the work of international bodies such as the UN’s International Labour Organisation.

 

One only needs to look to the millennium development goals (MDGs) to realise this. Freedom is one of the basic values guiding the MDGs and, to that extent, Sen has given the idea of human freedom a very modern job description. But he is also aware that the challenge of reconciling freedom with economic productivity harks back to the dawn of Enlightenment political philosophy. For this reason, he has not been afraid to champion a more precise interpretation of Adam Smith’s ideas about moral sentiments, even though Smith is usually held up these days, by the political left and right alike, as little more than a pro-market poster boy.

 

This intellectual judiciousness is central to the lessons of Sen’s work. Because development is a politically charged field, not to mention an ethically imperative one, we will never resolve the fundamental challenge it poses to society unless we are prepared to do much more of this sort of work. And as Sen has made clear, resolving the challenge of development is becoming more, not less, important in a world torn between the advance of globalisation and the retreat of the political art of good judgment.

http://www.guardian.co.uk

Bright spots in the world economy – 2013

2 de Janeiro de 2013
Looking beyond the western world, 2012 had no shortage of bright spots to choose from. Take China. The hard landing that many had feared for Beijing did not happen, and the economy continued to grow at a sustained rate of about 8 per cent. The country is slowly rebalancing, as the proportion of national income destined for consumption is on the rise. And while its small and medium-sized enterprises are still starved of credit, the steps Beijing is taking on the road to financial liberalisation mean foreign capital could soon come to the rescue.

True, policy inaction has transformed the Indian hare into a tortoise. Red tape and high labour costs are tying up Brazil’s growth. But their regional competitors are rising fast. With growth rates of more than 6 per cent, Indonesia is tipped to replace India as the “I” in the Brics club. Meanwhile, Mexico is benefiting from the reshoring of US companies from Asia. Were its new president to deliver on the promise to take on drug crime and fight off industrial oligopolies, Mexico would be in the position to outshine Brazil as Latin America’s most dynamic economy.

On the road to prosperity, few countries are marching more rapidly than Africa’s. The International Monetary Fund expects sub-Saharan Africa to have grown by 5 per cent in 2012. Four of the 10 fastest-growing nations in the world were African. Of course, it is much easier for countries starting from low levels of GDP to have record rates of growth. And with inequality widespread, a large chunk of Africa’s population still lives on less than two dollars a day. Yet large-scale investment from China in particular means infrastructure is improving and manufacturing growing. A middle class is rising and, with it, demands for better governance are strengthening.

Looking ahead to 2013, the developing world will continue to provide the best economic news. According to forecasts by the IMF, gold and silver in the race for fastest growth will go to South Sudan and Libya. These countries, however, are rebounding from years of war and destruction. Bronze will go, perhaps appropriately, to copper-rich Mongolia, whose natural resources – which also include gold, uranium and coal – are feeding China’s commodities hunger. More generally, resource-rich economies from Africa, Asia and Latin America will continue to do well.

As for the laggards, the list is unsurprisingly dominated by eurozone members. Six out of the eight countries for which the IMF forecasts a contraction in 2013 are in the eurozone. Even Germany and France are among the worst 20 performers. Is this an inevitable outcome? As austerity constrains the public purse, the economic outlook will depend on a pick-up of confidence in the private sector. This is difficult, but not impossible. The bold steps taken by the European Central Bank have brought down yields on peripheral bonds. Reforms passed in Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece mean their economies are rebalancing and their current accounts improving.

No one should expect 2013 to be much better than 2012. But those making this wish tonight at midnight should not feel completely hopeless about it.


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